課程大綱
<br>一、課程說明(Course Description)
<br> To develop and illustrate the risk analysis of complex and uncertain 
<br>systems– 
<br>engineering, biological, and social systems, as an example. In addition, 
<br>assess and 
<br>manage risks in practical applications.
<br>
<br>二、指定用書(Text Books)
<br>Cox, Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems. Springer 
<br>Science+Business Media, 
<br>LLC 2009
<br>
<br>三、參考書籍(References)
<br>Molak, Fundamentals of Risk Analysis and Risk Management. Lewis Publishers, 
<br>1997.
<br>Bedford & Cooke, Probabilistic Risk Analysis: foundations and methods. 
<br>Cambridge 
<br>University Press, 3rd Edition, 2004.
<br>
<br>四、教學方式(Teaching Method) 
<br>課堂授課並配合課程網頁教學 
<br>
<br>五、教學進度(Syllabus)
<br>第1週 Introduction 
<br>第2週 Quantitative Risk Assessment Goals and Challenges(Chapter 1) 
<br>第3週 Introduction to Engineering Risk Analysis(Chapter 2)
<br>第4週 Introduction to Health Risk Analysis(Chapter 3)
<br>第5週 Limitations of Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices(Chapter 4)
<br>第6週 Identifying Nonlinear Causal Relations in Large Data Sets(Chapter 6)
<br>第7週 Overcoming Preconceptions and Confirmation Biases Using Data Mining 
<br>(Chapter 7)
<br>第8週 Estimating the Fraction of Disease Caused by One Component of a 
<br>Complex Mixture: 
<br>Bounds for Lung Cancer (Chapter 8)
<br>第9週 Midterm 
<br>第10週 Bounding Resistance Risks for Penicillin (Chapter 9)
<br>第11週 Confronting Uncertain Causal Mechanisms – Portfolios of 
<br>Possibilities(Chapter 
<br>10)
<br>第12週 Determining What Can Be Predicted: Identifiability (Chapter 11)
<br>第13週 Removing Arsenic from Tobacco Smoke Significantly Reduce Smoker Risks 
<br>of Lung 
<br>Cancer? (Chapter 12)
<br>第14週 Simplifying Complex Dynamic Networks: A Model of Protease Imbalance 
<br>and COPD 
<br>Dynamic Dose-Response(Chapter 13)  
<br>第15週 Value of Information (VOI) in Risk Management Policies for Tracking 
<br>and Testing 
<br>Imported Cattle for BSE (Chapter 14)
<br>第16週 Improving Antiterrorism Risk Analysis (Chapter 15)
<br>第17週 端午節放假
<br>第18週 Final
<br>
<br>六、成績考核(Evaluation) 
<br>
<br>Oral and Paper presentation
<br>
<br>七、可連結之網頁位址 
<br>
<br>https://sites.google.com/site/integrationcollaborationlab/ 
<br>